The spot high holds steady and corn is still strong

From Dec. 20 to Dec. 24, even corn fell sharply, and the main contract C1109 opened at 2,345 yuan/ton, the highest at 2,360 yuan/ton, the lowest at 2,331 yuan/ton, and closed at 2,349 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous week. Compared with last week's large reduction in sales of 145,800 units to 903,900 units, this week, the number of positions increased by 68,300 to 388,800 lots. The Japanese K-line pattern shows that the weak rebound is expected to continue, but under the market conditions where the interest rate increase is expected to become a reality, the trend of the market is obviously adding additional variables.

The author believes that the downturn in transactions in the past week is obviously related to the withdrawal of some funds at the end of the year. However, the large increase in positions shows that the market has different divergence in its future trend. The next week is the last week of the end of the year. Even corn is falling. Or continue the strong? The author's answer is the latter, that is, the rebound will continue in the twists and turns, a brief analysis is as follows for reference:

In the international market, CBOT corn was closed at 613 cents/bushel on the eve of “Christmas”, up 17.5 cents per bushel from last week. On the K-line technical pattern, the period price broke through the uptrend range of up to two months. Situation, the author believes that this is a natural reflection of its tight supply, although the road to continued growth will inevitably twists and turns, but the overall upward trend is difficult to change. According to "China Food Network", according to its closing price on December 23, the value of the duty-paid price of US corn imports to the mainland is as high as 2,511 yuan/ton. The above prices at least mean that the international market has a significant pull on domestic prices. The latest agency anticipates that the CBOT corn futures price will hit a historical high of 850 cents per bushel within six months and may not be groundless.

In the domestic market, despite the continuous introduction of policies including raising the reserve requirement ratio, raising interest rates, and a series of control prices for the corn market, we have seen that in the corn spot market, the purchase price remained high, Jilin Dacheng The purchase price held steady at 1,860 yuan/ton, and the tracking station of a grain station in Liaocheng, Shandong Province, was also steady at 1920 yuan/ton, and the acquisition volume was still scarce. Although the auction rate and price of the main producing areas in this week both went down, but the demand Strong and unquestionable, part of the turnover of the library moved higher, and 1 - November imports increased by more than 30 times can provide evidence. In the author's annual report, it was mentioned that since the accumulation of two-year interim storage corn will be sold out, the fear of domestic corn price merging with the international market is only a matter of time, let alone reluctant sellers. Will demand continue to grow?

Based on the above analysis, although the double effect or the expiration price of the rate hike and fund withdrawal market is lower at the end of the year, the impact on the performance of corn will be even more limited. On the technical form analysis, of course, does not rule out the possibility of C1109 revisited the 2320--2330 yuan / ton first-line support, but in the long run, the decline will be a better point of purchase. It is suggested that the long-term long-term investors' ideas should not change. However, short-term trades and reductions in trading positions were appropriate. It is also an effective measure to avoid festival risks.