Palm oil will swing back in September, focusing on support near 7100

In August, domestic palm oil futures maintained a strong oscillation trend. Although the price of crude oil fell and the period of the impact of legume adjustments fell from around 7500, the surrounding markets continued to rebound with a stronger atmosphere. On September 9th, the decline in domestic commodities across the board, the sentiment of the market to do more oil was hit hard, and in the short term it required an oscillating repair process. The weak supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil will also affect the futures price. It is expected that domestic palm oil will oscillate in September. The callback has accumulated strength for the late rebound.

The recent crude oil boosting effect on the market is not obvious. Although June-November was the season in which the US crude oil-producing region of the Gulf of Mexico was often hit by hurricanes, hurricanes may stimulate short-term rebound in crude oil, and weaker US dollar will also provide some support for crude oil futures prices, but due to current crude oil consumption. The peak season has basically ended, and the inventory is still high, and the probability of a sharp increase in crude oil in September is not expected to be large. From a technical point of view, crude oil is likely to maintain the trend of the range oscillation before the breakthrough of 76 US dollars, which has a limited boost to palm oil.

The atmosphere of the surrounding agricultural products market is still strong, and the price will be supported accordingly. From Russia’s ban on wheat exports to the market’s expectation of corn’s production cuts, the theme of international agricultural market speculation has continued one after another, and the enthusiasm for rising agricultural products that fluctuates for two years has ignited, so that the US soybean production may exceed expectations and it will not cause much bad for the market. influences. In this atmosphere, even if there is a seasonal correction during the period, there is not much room below. In the medium term, there is still no shortage of speculation themes in the US soybean market. After the US soybean production dust settles, the impact of the weather on South American sowing will surface again. Therefore, in September, US soybean will maintain its strong oscillation trend, which will be a rebound for the latter period.

The weak supply and demand side will affect the Malaysian palm oil price. At present, Malaysian palm oil is in the cycle of increasing production, and production is likely to continue to increase in September. The Malaysian palm oil export was suppressed by two factors. First, the continuous appreciation of the Malaysian Ringgit and the continued strength of the period caused the price gap between the palm oil import cost and the distribution price of the Chinese port to be significantly inverted, which will affect China’s enthusiasm for importing palm oil. Second, the current price gap between soyoil and palm oil has narrowed, and businesses may switch to buying soyoil and pressure the export of palm oil. The weak supply and demand side will have a certain impact on the futures price, causing a seasonal price correction.

Judging from the statistical probability, the probability of a Malaysian palm oil price correction in September is relatively high. Through the statistics of the monthly data of the Malaysian palm oil index for the period of 2001-2009, we have found that the probability of the price falling in September is about 67%. From the monthly mean price trend of futures prices can also be roughly drawn seasonal trends in palm oil: the price will generally form a phased low in September, after the oscillation rebounded. At the same time, through statistics on the monthly data of crude oil, we found that the monthly rate of return for oil prices in September is the lowest annual rate of return, and a combination of the monthly average and monthly rate of return of crude oil prices will find that the average price of oil is in one year. The low point will appear in September and January. The correlation between Malaysian palm oil and crude oil prices is more than 80%. The regularity of crude oil prices verifies the above analysis of palm oil.

Based on the comprehensive analysis, due to the pressure of weak supply and demand and seasonal correction, the probability of Malaysian palm oil futures price correction in September is relatively large, but the surrounding agricultural products market has a strong atmosphere, and the callback space for futures prices will be limited, so in September Oscillation adjustment is mainly for the rebound of the late period. The domestic palm oil contract in May is expected to have a process of falling back after rebounding in September. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the support of the period near 7100.