Contrary to the soaring price of meat, pig prices will fly again?

The pork market has seen a more significant increase since June. This can not help but remind people of the story staged in 2008: At that time, the sharp increase in pork prices directly drove the CPI to a historic high of 12 years: 5.9%. So why did pork prices soar this year? Will this price increase continue?
Pork prices have always been a topic of concern in people's lives. Generally speaking, summer should be the off-season for pork consumption, and the price will drop slightly. However, in the pork market this summer, there has been a rise in prices, and there has been a relatively significant increase since June. This can not help but remind people of the story staged in 2008: At that time, the sharp increase in pork prices directly drove the CPI to a historic high of 12 years: 5.9%. So why did pork prices soar this year? Will this price increase continue?
The price of hot sky rose steadily in the stalls of the stalls last week. The reporter went to the Huichengmen Farmers' Market in Haidian District, Beijing, and saw the stalls selling pork before the door. A meat stall owner told reporters that the price of pork ribs is now about 13.5 yuan per catty, the price is slightly higher than the previous few days, plus the summer days of heat, there are fewer people who eat meat, low prices and high customer leads to the present The deserted business. He said that the people are paying special attention to the price of pork. Their way of responding to price increases is to go back to the farmers’ market early to buy meat. At that time, the price was relatively cheap, but the cause of the cold meat market was mainly due to the hot weather. Another stall owner told reporters that now they can only sell up to 4 pieces of meat (about 20 pounds per piece) per day. Compared with the peak season, this number can be described as pitiful.
The reporter recently learned from the Beijing Xinfadi Market that from June to July, the trend of the wholesale price of white striped pigs showed a trend of steadily increasing, and pork prices entered a period of recoverable rise from a low point. The white pigs have risen from 5.5 yuan/kg in early June to 7.1 yuan/kg in early July; pure ribs have risen from 10 yuan/kg to 13.5/kg; the prices of posterior buttock and pork have shown upward momentum.
Chen Peng is a journalist in a newspaper office in the capital. His monthly income is about 4,000 yuan, and his wife is considered as a home-based young couple. Usually, he or she usually cooks at home. Because of his love for meat, the recent increase in pork prices is a blow to the young couple. If the price of meat goes up, you can eat less pork and eat less." Chen Peng half-jokingly said that, together with the payment of rent and daily expenses, the monthly income is basically no more, and it is now unrealistic to buy ribs to eat every day. Although he loves to eat meat, he has encountered continuous price hikes in pork, and Chen Peng can only eat food selectively. If he wants to eat meat, he can eat meat and eat relatively cheap chicken.
“The weather is so hot now, I can’t eat much meat,” said Ms. Li, who is picking pork at the Huichengmen farmers’ market. Ms. Li, who has retired at home, needs to cook meals for 4 people at home every night. She is very sensitive to meat prices and she has recently realized that pork has gone up by a few cents from the previous week. “Before meat prices rose, they spent more than 20 yuan. A dollar will be able to solve a dinner, and now it costs 10 more to buy meat." The increase in pork prices did increase her living expenses for her, but because her family's appetite for meat weakened in the summer, this price is now acceptable to her. At the same time, in the case of rising pork prices, Ms. Zhang recently bought more vegetables in order to save money. She also bought chicken from time to time. “If you don’t eat pork, you can also change to Other meat.”
The increase in price incentives has made it difficult to superimpose pig farmers. From 2007 to 2008, pork prices have experienced a sharp rise. Many people see pigs make big money and have started pig farms. However, as some free-living households discovered that the increase in costs resulted in loss of money, they immediately withdrew, and pig farmers began to reduce their scale and raise livestock.
Guo Changchang of Beijing Chuanchuan Spring Breeding Farm said that selling a piglet now costs half the price of last year. “Now the price of corn is still rising, and the cost has been rising too much.” Seeing feed prices rising day by day, many farms and pig farmers have fallen into a dilemma of losing money for selling.
It is understood that after the Spring Festival this year, the price of pork continued to fall, while feed prices continued to rise and pigs fell into losses. One of the important reasons for the drop in pork prices is the supply of live pigs over demand. For this reason, the country has conducted four rounds of frozen pork storage and storage this year, but the effect is not obvious. Many farmers have seen the situation of oversupply of live pigs, and actively reduced the number of pigs or even no longer raise pigs.
According to an announcement by the Animal Husbandry Division of the Ministry of Agriculture, the number of live pigs in April was 436 million, a decrease of 1.20% from March and 4.15% from the same period of last year. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture in May, the number of live pigs decreased further. In May, the number of live pigs was 434 million. In one month, the number of herds had decreased by 2 million heads. Since the beginning of the year, the live pig population has dropped by 4.68%.
Liu Tong, head of the statistical department of agricultural products wholesale market in Xinfadi, believes that the 6-9 months of each year is the off-season pork consumption, and the general price will fall back. This year, the price of meat has risen in the off-season, indicating that the supply of pigs will soon begin to enter the supply shortage. status. At the beginning of the year, industry insiders predicted that the trend of pork prices from low to high this year may be similar to that of 2007.
Liu Tong said that from the momentum of the recovery of the wholesale price of white striped pigs in June, the price of pork may continue to rise. Even the prices in autumn and winter will not be lower than in 2007. These are not directly related to inflation. They are all pig-raising. The industry reflects the market during the industrial adjustment period. From the situation in 2009, after April, the price of pork was in a downward trend. Only in May-June, the government raised the price of meat by means of storing and supporting the city, but due to excess production capacity of pigs, Two to three months after the completion of the work, the meat price returned to the drop channel and continued until April of this year. "The decline in this period is also an indication of the price imbalance between supply and demand," said Liu Tong.
The Baichuanquan breeding pig farm supplies more than 5,000 pigs each year to the market, and is a large breeding pig farm in the capital. The field manager of the field said that the current situation is that there are fewer live pigs. The reason is that feed prices for corn and other pigs are increasing, resulting in high pig-raising costs and reduced profitability of pig raising.
According to Mr. Guo Changchang, the farm sells the pigs to pig vendors at a price of 1,200 yuan per head. The pigs are then sold by the pigs to the meat factory. The meat factory is processed and then the pork is put into the market for sale. Although the initial price link started from the farm here, Guo Changchang thinks that he is making a profit and earning: "Each pig is about 200 pounds. If it is sold for 6 pounds per catty, I can still make money, but I am now It is sold at a price of six kilograms per kilogram, which means that the cost price does not earn any money at all.” In addition, the cost of feed and pollution treatment are counted, as are other environmental protection facilities, water, electricity, and epidemic prevention medicines. The increase in money has greatly increased the cost of raising pigs.
Yang Baosheng, head of the farmer’s lily farm in Beijing, also said that although it seems that the price of pork hasn’t risen much, what most worried him is that raising pigs does not make money at all. "Imported fishmeal has now risen to about 13,000 yuan per ton from more than 6,000 yuan per ton last year, and corn has increased from 6 hairs per catty last year to 9 hairs 8 per catty, and the cost has greatly increased." He said that the price is the same as other farms. Lily pig farms also cost about 1200 yuan per head, and the cost remains high. Pigs do not sell for the price. In his words, "supply exceeds demand, so prices will not rise too much."
In addition to the farms, the production costs of the slaughterhouses are also rising. Coupled with the reduction in sales in the summer, profits have been affected.
A person in charge of a slaughter plant stated that the cost has been increased in all aspects, such as freight processing fees. Since oil prices have risen, the costs have been evenly distributed to pork prices. “Each pig has almost seventy-eight kilograms per kilogram. Yuan, plus the cost of processing, will naturally be higher on the market."
“The contradiction between the supply and demand of the swine industry through market competition is an important and even a major means for the market economy.” Liu Tong said that what the government can do is to protect the normal development of the aquaculture industry. The interests of small and medium-sized farmers need to find out the total demand and production volume under different seasons, different levels of economic development, and make adjustments to prevent the price of pork from rising up and down.
“What is more gratifying now is that the number of fertile sows is declining, and there are sufficient gilts in powerful pig farms, and family planning is carried out on fertile sows based on market demand and prices. The production of piglets is a manifestation of the gradual development of the aquaculture industry, Liu Tong said.
Pork price fluctuations will not be too high Liu Tong believes that due to a long period of losses in the pig industry, some small and medium-sized farmers who could not afford to lose their income have withdrawn from the pig-breeding industry. The introduction of family planning for sows, coupled with the cold winter weather at the end of last year and early this year, led to a significant drop in the birth rate and survival rate of piglets during that period, resulting in a tight supply of live pigs. Judging from the current supply situation, the tight supply situation may continue for some time, and the trend of price increase will continue for some time.
In pig feed, the cost of corn accounted for about 60%, and the price of corn increased sharply year-on-year and affected pork prices. The price of corn in June 2009 was 0.82 yuan/kg, and this year it reached 1.02 yuan/kg, up 24.39% year-on-year.
The corn market monitoring information released by the Ministry of Agriculture in April showed that domestic corn prices hit a record high in April. At present, the average national maize price is around 1980 yuan/ton, and the market price in the northeastern corn market is high. Among them, the highest purchase price for medium new corn at feed mills in the Tieling region of Liaoning is 1,930 yuan/ton. The market price of corn in the southern region was generally stable. The arrival price of medium-sized corn in the northeast of Chengdu, Sichuan Province was around 2,100 yuan/ton.
Relevant sources said that so far there is no shortage of corn in the country. Despite a major drought in the northeastern region last year, corn production has decreased significantly, but domestic corn supplies are abundant. The increase in the price of corn needs more to look for reasons than supply and demand, and the price that deviates from supply and demand will eventually appear as a burst of the bubble.
In an interview with reporters, Guo Dachang said that under the pressure of high costs, if free-living households do not survive, they may choose to sell at a low price, and large-scale farms will certainly not be affected, so pork prices will not be affected. Affected by too much, "the price will change, but the fluctuation will not be too much." Yang Baosheng also believes that the current pork prices are still normal, but the future may continue to rise.

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