Food prices hit new highs, moon cakes follow suit prices

Recently, the “relay-style” price increase of domestic agricultural products has caused concern from various parties: First, the prices of small-scale agricultural products such as mung beans, garlic, and ginger have soared, and then food prices such as wheat, corn, and rice have increased rapidly. In August, the prices of the three major staple foods in the country set a record high. How to look at the new round of higher food prices? What are the concerns of the current round of rising food prices?

The relay type rises to reproduce the rising price of raw grains. The moon cake follows the wind with 2.54 yuan per kilogram of wheat, 2.15 yuan for rice, and 2.04 yuan for corn. This is the futures price of the three major domestic staples on August 30th. Feng Lichen, president of China CornNet, pointed out to reporters on the steep K chart of the market software: “In August, the price of grain futures has changed to record highs, among which early rice has risen by nearly 12% from the end of July.”

An interview with the reporter found that in some places, the current "high food prices" did not stimulate farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain. According to a survey conducted by Hunan Provincial Grain Bureau, the acquisition of Hunan's early rice has so far decreased by one third compared to the previous year. Hunan Xiangyin farmers Xie Hua said: "This year's production cuts are obvious. The cost of one kilogram of rice has exceeded 1.8 yuan. Even if it is sold at 2.2 yuan, it will earn 300 yuan per mu." Rising prices of raw grains were soon transmitted to rice prices. The reporter learned from the Yuquan Road Market, Beijing's largest specialized grain and oil wholesale market, that the wholesale price of grain rice from the northeast rose from RMB 4 per kilogram at the beginning of the month to RMB 4.14; the rich and strong powders of brands like “Wutli” and “Jinmai” were higher. Monthly average of 1 yuan per bag rose, moon cakes follow the trend of rising prices. "Rice and noodles have risen in price, but they haven't eaten much in a month. It doesn't feel obvious. It's that the price of vegetables has risen so fast that it feels stressful to buy every day," said an old lady surnamed Chen who went to the market to buy rice.

Whoever pushed up the food price situation ignited the gains, and there was also a long-term push to target the recent rise in domestic food prices. The relevant experts believe that in addition to the transmission of international food price increases, the reduction in domestic summer grain production is a direct push, but the long-term factors behind price increases are. Can not be ignored. The reporter learned from the major grain-producing areas in Shaanxi, Henan and other provinces that local grain revenue this year is less than one-eighth of the proceeds from planting greenhouse vegetables and grapes. Liu Jianyong, a peasant in Xiaoshi Village, Guandao Township, Weinan City, Shaanxi Province, said: “The net income of 50 mu of vineyards that I have planted this year is 400,000 yuan. The proceeds from growing grain are still too low to be counted.”

The reduction of arable land also constrains the food supply. According to data released by the Ministry of Land and Resources, in the first half of the year, there were an average of 85 outbreaks of land infringement cases in China, including a large number of incidents of illegally occupying cultivated land.

Han Jun, Minister of Rural Development of the Development Research Center of the State Council, uses “fragility, coerciveness, and tension” to describe the balance of supply and demand for grain in China. Vulnerability lies in the scarcity of arable land; compulsory, it is low in grain production, and it directly contributes little to local finances; the tension lies in that the supply and demand of corn and rice are close to the critical point of imbalance. "As a country with a population of 1.3 billion, food security cannot be overemphasized."

Whether it will trigger a food crisis The "grain shortage" is difficult to emerge in the short term, but it is necessary to plan ahead. Russia, the world's major food exporter, has issued a ban on grain exports. Food-producing countries such as India and Australia have also faced food production cuts, triggering the controversy over whether the global food crisis will come. “The current situation is very different from the food crisis that began in 2007. It is still too early to judge the global food crisis.” Song Tingming said that the domestic food situation as a whole is better than international, and there could be no “grain shortage” in the short term. In terms of inventory, global food storage fell to a 30-year low of 121 million tons in 2008, while the current global large-scale wheat producer stocks are as high as 197 million tons. From the perspective of grain prices, the current rise in food prices is not stable. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) index rose by 26% in 2007, but the index has also seen a slight decline since the beginning of this year.

Song Tingming and other experts suggested that price cuts be avoided to avoid "subsidizing all consumers at the expense of reducing farmers' income."